An article titled “Patent Firms Struggling with Patent Attorney Shortage, Up to 1,400 Reduction Expected in the Next Decade” was published on Nikkei XTECH on February 14, 2024. According to this article, the number of patent attorneys affiliated with patent firms is projected to decrease by up to 1,400 over the next ten years.
Current State of Patent Attorneys
A comprehensive examination of the Japan Patent Office’s document titled “Current Status and Future Challenges of the Patent Attorney System,” published on January 29, 2024, reveals critical insights into the demographics and trends within the profession.
According to the “Age Distribution of Patent Attorneys” graph in the report, the number of patent attorneys has seen a significant increase over the past decade. In 2013, there were 10,171 patent attorneys, a number that grew to 11,743 by 2022, reflecting a 15.5% overall increase.
However, this growth is not evenly distributed across age groups. The combined total of patent attorneys in the 20-29 and 30-39 age brackets has declined. In 2013, these younger professionals numbered around 2,800. By 2022, their ranks had diminished to just 1,257, a drastic 55% reduction. This trend points to a significant decrease in the influx of younger patent attorneys, while the number of middle-aged and older attorneys has risen.
Aging Workforce and Future Challenges
The report highlights a critical concern: as indicated by the area enclosed in red in the graph above, approximately 3,000 patent attorneys, or about 25% of the total, are aged 60 and above. This cohort is expected to retire over the next decade, leading to a substantial reduction in the workforce.
Considering these factors, it is anticipated that the number of patent attorneys could decrease by up to 1,400 in the coming ten years. This potential decline poses significant challenges for the industry, necessitating strategic initiatives to attract and retain new talent to ensure the continued effectiveness of the patent system.
Notably, the ratio of patent attorneys above and below the age of 40 is a significant point of concern. In most Japanese companies, the typical retirement age is 60. Given that most individuals begin their careers at around 22 years old after graduating from university, the midpoint of their career would be at age 40. Analyzing the age distribution with this midpoint in mind reveals that, as of 2022, only about 10% of patent attorneys are under 40 years old, whereas a striking 90% are over 40.
Trends in Young Patent Attorney Exam Pass Rates
Examining the statistics of new patent attorney exam passers provides additional insights into the current state of the profession.
The graph below, based on the membership status report from the Japan Patent Attorneys Association and the patent attorney exam statistics from the Japan Patent Office, illustrates the number of under-40 patent attorney exam passers and registered patent attorneys from 2020 to 2024 (2024 exam passers have not yet been announced). From 2020 to 2023, an average of 150 individuals under the age of 40 passed the patent attorney exam each year. This suggests a steady supply of around 150 young exam passers annually. Despite this, the number of registered patent attorneys under 40 has decreased by an average of 110 each year.
Demographic Shifts Impacting the Patent Attorney Profession
Japan is facing the challenge of a nationwide population decline. This demographic shift includes a decrease in the younger population and an increase in the elderly population, leading to a severe shortage of young workers.
As the overall population decreases, the pool of young professionals entering various fields, including patent law, is also shrinking. This age distribution issue exacerbates the already critical shortage of young patent attorneys, placing a significant burden on the intellectual property industry as a whole. This demographic issue highlights the urgent need for strategic measures to attract and retain young talent in the patent attorney profession to ensure that the intellectual property system continues to function effectively in support of economic growth.
Potential Solutions
Given the headwinds of population decline, what measures can be taken to address the future shortage of patent attorneys and sustain the patent attorney system? One immediate measure is to increase the number of exam passers. Although an increase in exam passers would theoretically lead to more young patent attorneys, the current issue is that the number of registered young patent attorneys is decreasing for various reasons.
Analyzing these reasons, potential solutions could include simplifying the registration process for patent attorneys, strengthening support programs for young patent attorneys, and clearly outlining career paths and future prospects for young professionals. Making the patent attorney profession more attractive to young people requires concerted efforts from both the public and private sectors.
Conclusion
The current age distribution of patent attorneys is severely imbalanced, with only about 10% being under the age of 40, while approximately 90% are over 40. Despite many young candidates passing the exam, the proportion of young patent attorneys continues to decline.
The Japan Patent Office’s report, “Current Status and Future Challenges of the Patent Attorney System,” emphasizes the acute shortage of personnel in patent offices. Both patent offices and private companies face similar challenges in securing young patent attorneys, leading to intense competition for the limited number of young professionals.
To address this issue, immediate reforms aimed at maintaining and increasing the number of young patent attorneys are essential. These reforms must effectively counteract the decline in young professionals and ensure a sustainable future for the patent attorney profession.
